Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall case

Abstract : In the experiments on the Monty-Hall puzzle, a large majority of participants gives a response different from Experimenters' Bayesian solution. We analyze this discrepancy as a problem of interpretation of the revision process of probabilities, induced by the statement of the Monty-Hall puzzle. Experimenters' solution actually stems from a traditional focusing situation whereas participants may for pragmatic reasons, build an updating representation of the puzzle. We establish that the descriptive explanations for participants' modal response provided by the psychological literature on Monty-Hall such as the ones based on heuristics can be translated into the adequate rule of revision in this updating framework.
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Pré-publication, Document de travail
2008
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https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_00264949
Contributeur : Jean Baratgin <>
Soumis le : mardi 18 mars 2008 - 13:12:09
Dernière modification le : jeudi 1 février 2018 - 17:38:17
Document(s) archivé(s) le : vendredi 21 mai 2010 - 00:37:32

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  • HAL Id : ijn_00264949, version 1

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Jean Baratgin. Updating our beliefs about inconsistency: The Monty-Hall case. 2008. 〈ijn_00264949〉

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