Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Journal articles

Deductive Schemas with Uncertain Premises Using Qualitative Probability Expressions

Abstract : The new paradigm in the psychology of reasoning redirects the investigation of deduction conceptually and methodologically because the premises and the conclusion of the inferences are assumed to be uncertain. A probabilistic counterpart of the concept of logical validity and a method to assess whether individuals comply with it must be defined. Conceptually, we used de Finetti's coherence as a normative framework to assess individuals' performance. Methodologically, we presented inference schemas whose premises had various levels of probability that contained non-numerical expressions (e.g., "the chances are high") and, as a control, sure levels. Depending on the inference schemas, from 60% to 80% of the participants produced coherent conclusions when the premises were uncertain. The data also show that (i) except for schemas involving conjunction, performance was consistently lower with certain than uncertain premises, (ii) the rate of conjunction fallacy was consistently low (not exceeding 20%, even with sure premises), and (iii) participants' interpretation of the conditional agreed with de Finetti's "conditional event" but not with the material conditional.
Document type :
Journal articles
Complete list of metadatas

Cited literature [52 references]  Display  Hide  Download

https://jeannicod.ccsd.cnrs.fr/ijn_01293776
Contributor : Guy Politzer <>
Submitted on : Friday, April 1, 2016 - 5:55:42 PM
Last modification on : Tuesday, September 22, 2020 - 3:53:52 AM
Long-term archiving on: : Wednesday, November 9, 2016 - 5:30:19 PM

File

Politzer & Baratgin T&R final ...
Files produced by the author(s)

Identifiers

Collections

Citation

Guy Politzer, Jean Baratgin. Deductive Schemas with Uncertain Premises Using Qualitative Probability Expressions. Thinking and Reasoning, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2016, 22 (1), pp.78-98. ⟨10.1080/13546783.2015.1052561⟩. ⟨ijn_01293776⟩

Share

Metrics

Record views

340

Files downloads

354